Ukraine Pushed Russia's Black Sea Fleet Out of Crimea, But Retaking the Peninsula Will Be Incredibly Hard
In a significant military development, Ukraine has succeeded in pushing Russia's Black Sea Fleet from Crimea after a relentless two-year campaign of targeted strikes. While this shift marks a considerable blow to Russian naval strength in the region, military experts caution that the path ahead for Ukraine to reclaim the peninsula is fraught with difficulty. Achieving a successful military operation to retake Crimea will demand not just a formidable assault force but also a concerted strategy and a considerable investment of resources.
The Current State of the Black Sea Fleet
Since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet has been stationed in Sevastopol, serving as the operational heart of Russia’s naval power in the Black Sea. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian forces executed a series of tactical offensives that reportedly destroyed or damaged around half of the Russian fleet's warships, including notable assets like submarines. Utilizing a diverse array of tools, including aerial drones, sea drones, and anti-ship missiles, Ukraine has significantly degraded the fleet’s capabilities and pushed Russian warships into safer ports like Feodosia and Novorossiysk.
This degradation has not only hampered Russian military logistics across southern Ukraine but has also diminished Crimea's appeal as a summer destination, adding another layer of pressure on Russia’s hold over the peninsula. However, military analysts contend that retaking Crimea would require immense manpower, firepower, and air support, coupled with a high degree of caution to minimize unnecessary losses.
The Challenge of Reclaiming Crimea
Military experts highlight that retaking Crimea poses an enormous challenge for Ukrainian forces due to the peninsula's strategic significance and its complex geography. Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, points out that Crimea is essentially an island, making an amphibious assault nearly impossible for Ukraine, which lacks the naval capacity to deploy large-scale troop transports.
Moreover, the Russian military has established extensive fortifications, creating heavily defended positions that include anti-tank ditches, trenches, minefields, and various other defensive mechanisms along Crimea's 600-mile front line. Mark Temnycky from the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center notes that breaking through these defensive lines will not merely be a matter of strength but will require sustained, strategic planning and execution.
Tactical Imperatives for Ukraine
To mount a successful offensive against Russian forces in Crimea, Ukraine will first need to cripple Russia’s military capabilities in the region. This involves eradicating or significantly degrading Russian air defenses, missile systems, and other critical military infrastructure. Experts like Basil Germond from Lancaster University emphasize that Ukrainian forces must prepare the operational terrain before even contemplating an invasion.
Military analysts suggest that without the ability to ferry a substantial assault force by air or sea, Ukraine’s only option will be to engage in direct ground combat, which brings its own risks. Additionally, should Russia lose its grip on Kherson, it could reinforce its defensive positions, making Crimea even harder to reclaim.
The Numbers Game
Experts agree that any assault on Crimea boils down to troop density. Russian military sources indicate an intent to increase troop numbers significantly, potentially committing around 690,000 personnel to the conflict by year-end. In contrast, Ukrainian forces would likely need to outnumber defenders by a ratio of three to five times for any real chance of success—an aspiration that would necessitate a substantial uplift in both manpower and logistical support, likely exceeding Ukraine's current capabilities.
Benjamin Friedman from the Defense Priorities think tank underlines the severity of the challenge, noting that even with advanced aircraft like the F-16, the effectiveness of close air support for ground operations would be hampered by the robust nature of Russian air defenses.
Historical Context and Tactical Opportunities
Despite these considerable obstacles, some experts propose that with adequate resources and time, Ukraine could effectively retake Crimea. Historical precedents from World War II illustrate that while fortified, Crimea has proven vulnerable to sustained offensives. Any potential assault may hinge on breaking through the Suvorikin Line—a complex network of fortifications erected in southern and eastern Ukraine.
Sergej Sumlenny, founder of the European Resilience Initiative Center, suggests that should Ukrainian forces succeed in breaking through to Crimea, they could replicate past successes by targeting supply routes, such as the vital Kerch Bridge and ferry connections.
However, this objective carries its share of uncertainties. While some argue that Ukraine might exploit the historical vulnerabilities of Crimea, others raise concerns over the potential human cost of a full-scale invasion. Temnycky argues that any significant loss of life would make such a bid impractical. Additionally, the specter of nuclear escalation looms if Russian forces perceive a genuine threat to their hold on the peninsula.
Conclusion: A Difficult Road Ahead
As Ukraine continues its fight to reclaim lost territories, the quest to retake Crimea stands out as perhaps the most daunting challenge in the ongoing conflict. The combination of fortified Russian positions, logistical hurdles, and air defense capabilities creates a complex landscape for Ukrainian planners. Though the goal remains a strategic imperative, most experts agree that retaking Crimea will likely be one of the final chapters in this drawn-out conflict, rather than an early objective.
In summary, while Ukraine has dealt substantial blows to Russian forces in the Black Sea, the formidable task of retaking Crimea underscores both the resilience of Russian military infrastructure and the monumental challenges that await Ukraine on the road to full territorial integrity.