Trump said having JD Vance as his VP will have 'virtually no impact' on the race. Political scientists say otherwise.
In a recent interview, former President Donald Trump dismissed the impact of vice presidential candidates on elections, stating that they have "virtually no impact." This assertion has drawn significant scrutiny from political scientists, who highlight the vital roles running mates can play in both winning elections and governing effectively. As Trump contemplates the possibility of Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential pick, experts argue that this choice could reverberate throughout the 2024 election landscape in ways Trump may not fully grasp.
A Chaotic Interview and Controversial Claims
During a tumultuous discussion at the National Association of Black Journalists conference, Trump faced inquiries about the preparedness of potential running mate JD Vance for the vice presidency. In a rather evasive response, Trump claimed that historically speaking, vice-presidential candidates do not sway election outcomes significantly. "Basically, you're voting for the president," he reiterated, insisting that voters prioritize the presidential candidate over their running mate.
While Trump has praised Vance's capabilities, his failure to directly address questions regarding Vance's readiness raised eyebrows among political analysts. Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, pointed out that, while it is true that vice-presidential nominees have historically lacked substantial electoral influence, the unique circumstances of the upcoming election may defy this precedent.
The Significance of the Vice Presidential Choice
One key factor Hult highlighted is Trump's age of 78 and recent threats to his personal safety, which could amplify concerns about his viability as a candidate and the readiness of his running mate. Given these vulnerabilities, voters may place increased scrutiny on Vance's qualifications, leading to greater significance attached to the vice-presidential selection than usual.
Christopher J. Devine, co-author of "Do Running Mates Matter? The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections," echoed this sentiment. He emphasized that a poorly chosen running mate could tarnish a candidate's public perception. "When voters question a running mate's competence, that judgment reflects on the presidential candidate," he explained, suggesting that Vance's inexperience may lead to doubts about Trump's judgment.
Even small shifts in voter perception regarding Vance could have sizable implications in a tightly contested race. Joel Goldstein, a professor at Saint Louis University and an authority on the vice presidency, noted that a slight dip in support could shift results in competitive states, potentially influencing the crucial path to securing the necessary electoral votes.
A Heartbeat Away from Power
Contrary to Trump’s claim that votes are primarily cast for the presidential candidate, Andrew Gelman, a political scientist at Columbia University, argued that the electoral reality is more nuanced. "When you cast your vote, you are voting for the entire ticket," he stated. Given the historical patterns where almost 20% of vice presidents have ascended to the presidency unexpectedly due to unforeseen circumstances, the importance of the vice presidential candidate cannot be underestimated.
Richard Yon, author of "Emerging from the Shadows: Vice Presidential Influence in the Modern Era," reinforced the significance of running mates on the campaign trail. He described them as crucial "attack dogs," responsible for pushing the candidate's agenda and garnering voter support. Additionally, history showcases how effective vice presidents have a lasting influence on governmental operations. Notable partnerships between presidents and vice presidents, such as Bill Clinton and Al Gore, or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, exemplify the effective collaboration that can arise in the White House, often easing the president's burden and allowing for a more dynamic leadership structure.
Conclusion: A Critical Perspective on Trump's Remarks
In response to Trump's assertions about the inconsequentiality of the vice president, Richard Yon lamented the overly simplistic nature of such claims. "To say that the vice presidential candidate doesn't matter overlooks the complexities and nuances we've observed throughout American political history," he asserted.
As Trump approaches a potentially groundbreaking election season, the implications of his choice for vice president will undoubtedly resonate further than he might be willing to admit. The interplay between Vance's political acumen and Trump's own judgment may very well dictate the trajectory of the race, illustrating that while a vice presidential candidate may not historically alter the outcome, this context may create a notable exception. Whether Trump recognizes it or not, voters are watching closely, and the choice of running mate may prove pivotal in their electoral decisions.