5 Big-Picture Trends for Managers to Consider Entering Fantasy Football Draft Season
As fantasy football draft season approaches, managers are gearing up for what promises to be an exciting and unpredictable season. Matt Harmon, a seasoned fantasy football analyst, has been crunching the numbers and projecting player performances. Here are five big-picture trends that managers should consider as they prepare for their drafts.
1. Embrace the Chaos: Injuries and Depth Chart Fluctuations
Injuries and unexpected performance swings are inevitable in the NFL. These factors can significantly alter the dynamics of crowded receiver rooms. For instance, in Houston, Nico Collins could emerge as a dominant No. 1 wide receiver if key players like Tank Dell or other top receivers face setbacks. While projections might suggest a crowded field, the reality on the field can be quite different. Managers should be prepared to pivot based on the latest news and adjust their strategies accordingly.
2. Quarterback Uncertainty and Its Impact on Pass-Catchers
The quarterback position is a pivotal one, and uncertainty at this spot can have a ripple effect on the entire offense. Teams like the Raiders, with an open competition between Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew, present a challenge. The volume of passes might be high, but the efficiency and effectiveness could be questionable. Managers should carefully evaluate the potential impact of quarterback play on their chosen pass-catchers, ensuring they are not overinvesting in players whose production hinges on inconsistent quarterbacking.
3. Offensive Philosophy and Play-Calling
Offensive coordinators and head coaches bring their own philosophies to the table, which can significantly influence player production. For example, the Commanders' new coaching staff, including Kliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn, might push for a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. However, the reality might be more nuanced, especially with a rookie quarterback. Managers should look beyond historical data and consider the specific context of each team's offensive approach. This includes understanding how play-calling might change with new personnel and strategies.
4. Concentration of Targets and the Risk of Over-Saturation
In offenses with multiple talented pass-catchers, the distribution of targets becomes crucial. Teams like the Falcons, with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, present a scenario where concentration of targets could be key. If too many players command significant target shares, it could dilute the production of top options. Managers should assess the likelihood of target concentration and be wary of over-saturation, ensuring they are not caught off guard by a spread-out target pecking order.
5. The Impact of New Coaching Hires and Offensive Schemes
New coaching hires can bring fresh perspectives and schemes, which can either elevate or hinder player performance. The Browns' hiring of Ken Dorsey, for instance, signals a potential shift towards a more pass-heavy offense that aligns with Deshaun Watson's strengths. Managers should pay close attention to these changes, as they can create opportunities for undervalued players and sleeper picks. Understanding the nuances of new offensive systems can provide a competitive edge in drafting.
Conclusion
As managers dive into fantasy football draft season, these five big-picture trends offer valuable insights. Embracing the chaos of injuries and depth chart fluctuations, understanding the impact of quarterback uncertainty, assessing offensive philosophies, managing target concentration, and recognizing the influence of new coaching hires are all critical. By staying informed and adaptable, managers can navigate the complexities of the draft season and position themselves for a successful fantasy football campaign.