What Polling Shows About the Top VP Contenders for Kamala Harris
As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to announce her running mate, a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that several of the top contenders for the role are largely unknown to Americans. Among these, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly stands out with more name recognition and higher favorability, particularly among Democrats.
The survey, conducted after President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, underscores the strengths and weaknesses that different politicians could bring to the ticket—and the challenges they could face if selected. Kelly, while better known and liked than some alternatives, is still unfamiliar to about half of Americans. Others, like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, while less known nationally, could draw on a deeper well of support in their home states and regions.
Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly
Of the four potential Democratic vice-presidential candidates included in the poll—Kelly, Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper—Kelly has the highest name recognition and favorability, according to the AP-NORC poll. Americans are more likely to have a positive view of Kelly than a negative one. About 3 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat favorable view of Kelly, while about 2 in 10 have a negative view.
Democrats are especially likely to have warm feelings about Kelly. Forty-five percent have a favorable view of Kelly, with only about 1 in 10 holding an unfavorable view. Older Democrats—those 45 and older—are especially likely to have a positive view of Kelly, while younger Democrats are more likely to be unfamiliar with him. Kelly's proven track record as a battle-tested campaigner, winning a special election in 2020 to flip the Arizona Senate seat from Republican control, bolsters his appeal.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
Shapiro is broadly unknown to Americans and Democrats, except in the Northeast, where he has more name recognition and higher favorability. The poll found that 6 in 10 U.S. adults—including 57% of Democrats—don't know enough to have an opinion about Shapiro. About 2 in 10 Americans view him favorably, with a similar share viewing him unfavorably.
Among Democrats, about one-quarter have a positive view of Shapiro, while 16% have a negative view. Older Democrats are more likely than younger ones to have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, but overall, most have yet to develop a view. Shapiro's significant better known and liked status in his home region could be a boon if selected.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear
If chosen, Beshear would need to introduce himself to most of the country. Around 7 in 10 Americans don’t know enough to have an opinion about him. Those with a view are about evenly split: 17% of U.S. adults have a positive view, and 15% have a negative one. However, Democrats have a more positive than negative opinion of Beshear. About one-quarter have a very or somewhat favorable view, while around 1 in 10 have a negative view.
Beshear's victory in 2023 against Republican Daniel Cameron, credited in part to his advocacy of abortion rights, showcases his potential appeal to key Democratic constituencies.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz
Not included in the AP-NORC poll, Walz was featured in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, which found that about 9 in 10 U.S. adults don’t know enough to have an opinion on him. Among Americans with a view, opinions are split between positive and negative. Walz, who also served for 12 years in the House, has recently moved up on Harris' shortlist, with his coined “weird” talking point gaining traction among Democrats.
Conclusion
As Harris nears her decision, the poll highlights the importance of name recognition and regional support. While Kelly emerges as a strong contender with broad appeal among Democrats, Shapiro, Beshear, and Walz each bring unique strengths that could bolster the ticket in different ways. The upcoming seven-state swing of key battlegrounds will be crucial in testing these contenders' appeal and viability.
The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.