Canada's 'Shoestring' Navy Needs Drastic Changes to Buy the New Submarine Fleet It Wants
Canada's ambition to expand its submarine fleet to outnumber those of the UK, Germany, and most NATO nations is fraught with challenges. The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) currently operates just four aging Victoria-class submarines, and the prospect of acquiring up to twelve new vessels raises critical questions about operational capacity, funding, and infrastructure.
The Current State of Canada's Submarine Fleet
Canada's existing submarine force is in dire straits. The Victoria-class submarines, which were purchased second-hand from the UK in the late 1990s, have been plagued by reliability issues and maintenance delays. With only one of the four submarines fully operational at any given time, the RCN struggles to meet its commitments, both domestically and internationally. Paul Mitchell, a defense studies professor, highlights that "everything is done on a shoestring," reflecting the underfunded and overstretched nature of the current fleet.
Ambitious Plans Amidst Operational Challenges
The Canadian government has announced plans to acquire conventionally-powered submarines capable of operating under ice, a strategic necessity given the melting Arctic and increasing geopolitical competition in the region. However, the feasibility of operating twelve new submarines when the RCN can barely manage four raises significant concerns. The lack of operational submarines not only hampers defense capabilities but also questions the effectiveness of expanding the fleet without addressing existing shortcomings.
The Arctic Imperative
With the world's longest coastline, Canada has a vested interest in safeguarding its territorial waters, particularly in the Arctic. The melting ice has opened new shipping routes and access to valuable resources, prompting nations like the US, Russia, and China to increase their presence in the region. Submarines could play a crucial role in patrolling these waters and asserting Canadian sovereignty. However, the RCN's current limitations in submarine operations pose a significant barrier to this goal.
Infrastructure and Personnel Shortages
Acquiring new submarines is only part of the equation. The RCN lacks the necessary shore-based infrastructure, such as maintenance and training facilities, which are currently split between the East and West coasts. Additionally, a new base in the Arctic would be essential to support operations in that region. The recruitment crisis within the Canadian Armed Forces further complicates matters, with a severe shortage of qualified personnel to operate and command the submarines.
Financial Constraints and Competing Priorities
The financial implications of a massive submarine acquisition program cannot be overlooked. With defense spending at just 1.38% of GDP, well below NATO's target of 2%, Canada faces tough choices. The National Shipbuilding Strategy, which includes plans for new destroyers and Arctic patrol vessels, will cost over $100 billion. Coupled with the acquisition of 88 F-35 fighters, the financial burden on the Canadian government is substantial.
Conclusion: A Pipe Dream or a Path Forward?
Canada's ambition to build a larger submarine fleet is commendable but fraught with obstacles. Without significant changes in funding, infrastructure, and personnel, the plan risks becoming a "white elephant" in defense history. As geopolitical tensions rise and the Arctic becomes increasingly contested, the need for a robust and capable navy has never been more critical. The question remains: can Canada muster the resources and commitment necessary to realize its submarine ambitions?